Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator. MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

Fatty Liver Index and mortality after myocardial infarction: A prospective analysis in the Alpha Omega Cohort.

Accumulating evidence shows that NAFLD might play a role in the etiology and progression of CVD, but little is known on the association of NAFLD and CVD mortality in patients with a history of a myocardial infarction (MI). Therefore, we studied the relationship of Fatty Liver Index (FLI), as indicator for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with 12-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in post-MI patients. We included 4165 Dutch patients from the Alpha Omega Cohort aged 60-80 years who had an MI ≤10 years prior to study enrolment. NAFLD was defined as FLI ≥60. Patients were followed for cause-specific mortality from enrolment (2002-2006) through December 2018. Hazard ratios for CVD and all-cause mortality were obtained by multivariable Cox regression using FLI <30 (indicating absence of NAFLD) as the reference. Baseline FLI as a continuous measure was studied with mortality using restricted cubic splines analyses. The median (IQR) FLI was 68 (48-84). Sixty percent of the patients had FLI ≥60, who were more likely to be male and more often had diabetes, high blood pressure, and high serum cholesterol levels. During 12 years of follow-up, 2042 deaths occurred of which 846 from CVD. Patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of CVD mortality (HR: 1.55 [1.19, 2.03]) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.21 [1.03; 1.41]) compared to patients without NAFLD. Results remained consistent after excluding patients with obesity and diabetes. To conclude, the adverse association of FLI with CVD mortality was stronger in female than in male patients with conventional cut-off points. FLI ≥60, indicating NAFLD, was a predictor for CVD and all-cause mortality in post-MI patients, independent of other cardiometabolic risk factors. However, cut-off points might differ between male and female patients for predicting CVD mortality.

Spleen Stiffness Measurement Across the Spectrum of Liver Disease Patients in Real-World Practice.

Objectives: Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) provides a non-invasive surrogate marker for clinical significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Results obtained in highly selected populations were promising but require validation across the spectrum of liver disease. We aimed to investigate the clinical applicability of SSM in a real-world setting. Methods: We prospectively enrolled patients referred for liver ultrasound (January-May 2021). Patients with a portosystemic shunt, liver transplant, or extrahepatic etiology of portal hypertension were excluded. We performed liver ultrasound, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and SSM (dedicated software, 100 Hz-probe). Probable CSPH was established if ≥1 of the following items occurred: ascites, varices, encephalopathy, splenomegaly, recanalized umbilical vein, collaterals, dilated portal veins, hypertensive gastropathy, or LSM ≥25 kPa. Results: We enrolled 185 patients (53% male; age 53years [37-64], 33% viral hepatitis, 21% fatty liver disease). Of them, 31% of patients had cirrhosis (68% Child-Pugh A) and 38% of patients had signs of portal hypertension. SSM (23.8 kPa [16.2-42.3]) and LSM (6.7 kPa [4.6-12.0]) were successful and met reliability criteria in 70% and 95%, respectively. Spleen size was inversely associated with SSM failure (odds ratio: 0.66 increment/cm, 95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.82). Optimal spleen stiffness cut-off to detect probable CSPH was >26.5 kPa (likelihood ratio: 4.5, sensitivity: 83%; specificity: 82%). Spleen stiffness did not outperform liver stiffness in detecting probable CSPH (P = 1.0). Conclusions: In real-world practice, reliable SSM were obtained in 70% and could potentially stratify patients between high- and low-risk of probable CSPH. However, cut-offs for CSPH might be substantially lower than previously reported. Future studies validating these results are required. Clinical trial number: Netherlands Trial Register (Registration number: NL9369).

The Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: validation in the general US population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive tests are important in the initial risk stratification of people at risk of fibrosis. The recently developed steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score may have such potential but awaits external validation. METHODS: We analyzed 6973 participants aged 18-80 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 cycle with data on liver stiffness and SAFE score without prevalent heart failure. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Accuracy was evaluated by AUC and assessment of test characteristics at the prespecified cutoffs for ruling out/ruling in fibrosis. RESULTS: The SAFE score categorized 14.7% of the population as high risk, 30.4% as intermediate risk, and 54.9% as low risk for fibrosis. The actual fibrosis prevalence in these groups was 28.0%, 10.9%, and 4.0%, respectively, translating into a positive predictive value of 0.28 at the high-risk cutoff and a negative predictive value of 0.96 at the low-risk cutoff. The AUC of the SAFE score (0.748) was significantly higher than the fibrosis-4 index (0.619) or NAFLD fibrosis score (0.718). However, test performance strongly depended on age categories: 90% of participants aged 18-40 years were considered at low risk for fibrosis, including 89/134 (66%) of clinically significant fibrosis cases. In the oldest group (60-80 y), fibrosis could only be safely ruled out among 17%, corresponding to a high referral rate of up to 83%. The best SAFE score performance was found in the middle-aged group (40-60 y). The results were consistent in target populations with metabolic dysfunction or steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: The SAFE score has overall good diagnostic accuracy in detecting fibrosis but was highly dependent on age. The SAFE score lacked sensitivity in younger populations and the ability to rule out fibrosis in older populations.

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B-related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC University Medical Center (Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy at the Toronto General Hospital (Toronto, Canada). The presence of metabolic comorbidities (ie, overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary end point was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver-related mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed 1850 patients, of whom 926 (50.1%) were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia, and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-11.5 y), a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 8.3; 95% CI, 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and overweight (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) were associated with an increased risk for liver-related events. The presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among noncirrhotic hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients with hepatitis B virus DNA less than 2000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B e antigen status, hepatitis B virus DNA, use of antiviral therapy, and the presence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with an increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups, underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Liver stiffness is associated with excess mortality in the general population driven by heart failure: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated liver stiffness reflects hepatic fibrosis but can also be secondary to venous congestion. We aimed to study the association between liver stiffness and mortality in the general population, stratified for heart failure and/or coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: We analysed individuals enrolled in the ongoing prospective population-based Rotterdam Study who attended a visit between 2009-2014 that included liver stiffness measurement. Exclusion criteria for the primary analysis were incomplete data on heart failure, unreliable liver stiffness, alcohol abuse and viral hepatitis, leaving 4.153 participants (aged 67.5 ± 8.4 years, 44.2% male) for analysis with a median follow-up of 6.0 (interquartile range: 5.1-7.0) years. Secondary analysis included participants with viral hepatitis, alcohol abuse and/or unreliable measurement. The association between liver stiffness and mortality was assessed using Cox regression. Associations between heart failure, CHD, and echocardiographic characteristics and liver stiffness were quantified with linear regression. RESULTS: Liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa was associated with mortality (aHR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.00-1.89). However, this was driven by participants with heart failure (aHR: 2.48, 95%CI: 1.15-5.35), since high liver stiffness was not associated with mortality in participants without heart failure and/or CHD (aHR: 1.07, 95%CI: 0.70-1.64). Results were consistent when individuals with viral hepatitis, alcohol abuse or unreliable liver stiffness measurement were not excluded. Several cardiovascular characteristics were significantly associated with higher liver stiffness, e.g. heart failure, moderate/poor diastolic dysfunction, and right atrium diameter > 4.5 cm. CONCLUSION: In our cohort of community-dwelling elderly, high liver stiffness was associated with excess mortality, primarily explained by participants with heart failure. Moreover, heart failure and its indicators were associated with increased liver stiffness.

Plasma proteomic signature of fatty liver disease: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease (FLD) is caused by excess fat in the liver, and its global prevalence exceeds 33%. The role of protein expression on the pathogenesis of FLD and accompanied fibrosis and its potential as a disease biomarker is currently not clear. Hence, we aimed to identify plasma proteomics associated with FLD and fibrosis using population-based data. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Blood samples were collected from 2578 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study cohort. The proximity extension assay reliably measured plasma levels of 171 cardiometabolic and inflammatory-related proteins (Olink Proteomics). FLD was assessed by ultrasound, and fibrosis by transient elastography. Logistic regression models quantified the association of plasma proteomics with FLD and fibrosis. In addition, we aimed to validate our results in liver organoids. The cross-sectional analysis identified 27 proteins significantly associated with FLD surpassing the Bonferroni-corrected p <2.92×10 -4 . The strongest association was observed for FGF-21 (ß=0.45, p =1.07×10 -18 ) and carboxylesterase 1 (CES1) protein (ß=0.66, p =4.91×10 -40 ). Importantly, 15 of the 27 proteins significantly associated with FLD were also associated with liver fibrosis. Finally, consistent with plasma proteomic profiling, we found the expression levels of IL-18 receptor 1 (IL-18R1) and CES1 to be upregulated in an FLD model of 3-dimensional culture human liver organoids. CONCLUSIONS: Among the general population, several inflammatory and cardiometabolic plasma proteins were associated with FLD and fibrosis. Particularly, plasma levels of FGF-21, IL-18R1, and CES1 were largely dependent on the presence of FLD and fibrosis and may therefore be important in their pathogenesis.

Prevalence of lung tumors in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and vice versa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Recent reports suggest an increased prevalence of lung second primary tumors (LSPTs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and vice versa. However, the exact prevalence of SPTs remains unclear and screening for these SPTs is currently not routinely performed in western countries. We aimed to report on the prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC and esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in patients with lung cancer (LC). METHODS: Databases were searched until 25 March 2021 for studies reporting the prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC or vice versa. Pooled prevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SPTs were calculated with inverse variance, random-effects models and Clopper-Pearson. RESULTS: Nineteen studies in ESCC patients and 20 studies in LC patients were included. The pooled prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC was 1.8% (95% CI 1.4-2.3%). For ESPTs in LC patients, the pooled prevalence was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.4%). The prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC patients was significantly higher in patients treated curatively compared to studies also including palliative patients (median 2.5% versus 1.3%). This difference was consistent for the ESPT prevalence in LC patients (treated curatively median 1.3% versus 0.1% for all treatments). Over 50% of the detected SPTs were squamous cell carcinomas and were diagnosed metachronously. CONCLUSION: Patients with ESCC and LC have an increased risk of developing SPTs in the lungs and esophagus. However, the relatively low SPT prevalence rates do not justify screening in these patients. Further research should focus on risk stratification to identify subgroups of patients at highest risk of SPT development.

Fatty liver disease is not associated with increased mortality in the elderly: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease (FLD) has been associated with excess mortality. Screening for hepatic steatosis (HS) in patients with metabolic dysfunction is therefore recommended by several guidelines, despite a paucity of evidence on the clinical relevance of FLD in this specific subgroup. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We studied participants of an ongoing prospective cohort (the Rotterdam Study). Persons ≥65 years old were enrolled from 2009 to 2014 and were followed through 2018. Steatosis was assessed by ultrasound and liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography. The association between HS and LS with mortality was assessed using Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking, individual components of metabolic syndrome (MetS), heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke. We included 4093 elderly participants (74.4 ± 6.6 years old; 42.7% male); 36.8% had ultrasound-based steatosis. During the median follow-up of 6.9 years, 793 participants died (29.6 per 1000 person-years). In the overall population, steatosis was not associated with mortality in multivariable analysis (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.73-1.03). Findings were consistent across a range of clinically relevant subgroups, including age categories, sex, MetS, elevated liver enzymes, and cardiac disease. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results for mortality beyond 5 years of follow-up and cancer-related and cerebro-cardiovascular mortality. Furthermore, among participants with steatosis, higher LS (aHR, 1.04 per kPa; 95% CI, 0.95-1.14) was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of FLD was not associated with mortality in this cohort nor in a range of subgroups. This indicates that screening for FLD and/or fibrosis is unlikely to improve outcomes among the elderly population.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and excessive alcohol consumption are both independent risk factors for mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: MAFLD often cooccurs with excessive alcohol consumption, while its prognostic value in this group remains unclear. We aimed to study the mortality risk of MAFLD in relation to excessive alcohol consumption and its potential interactions. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed persons 25-74 years old enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III cohort with available steatosis and alcohol data. Participants with viral hepatitis, body mass index < 18.5, and missing data on age or follow-up were excluded, leaving 12,656 participants for analysis with a median follow-up of 22.9 [20.9-24.8] years. MAFLD was defined as steatosis on ultrasound in the presence of metabolic dysfunction. Daily alcohol intake of ≥10 g in females and ≥20 g in males was considered excessive alcohol consumption. We quantified mortality risk with multivariate Cox regression for MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption. Models were adjusted for age, age squared, sex, race, marital status, education, and smoking. MAFLD was present in 31% and excessive alcohol consumption in 13% and were both independently and simultaneously associated with increased mortality risk in fully adjusted models (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30 and aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26, respectively). Similarly, MAFLD was associated with increased mortality risk in participants with and without excessive alcohol consumption. Participants with both MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption (4.0%) expressed the highest mortality risk (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.28-1.71). Results were consistent using the initial 10 years of follow-up, a stringent definition of excessive alcohol, and propensity score weighting. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD increases mortality risk independent of excessive alcohol consumption. This underscores the importance of MAFLD, even in patients with excessive alcohol consumption.